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France has been mired in turmoil for months, as president Emmanuel Macron’s push to raise the pension age led to widespread protests . But oddly, the French stock market has been climbing, thanks in part to high-end consumers in China and a seemingly insatiable demand for all things Cartier, Dior and Chanel. The iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ) is nearing an all-time high, and Strategas Securities’ ETF and technical strategist Todd Sohn said in a note to clients that the fund is getting a boost from its large percentage of luxury goods companies, which give investors a more stable way to bet on China’s economic reopening after its Zero Covid slowdown. “There’s crazy volatility with Chinese markets, because they decline 20-40% in any given year. And so if I don’t want to deal with that, if I can’t stomach it, let me play a derivative of it, and France, in a way, is the best way to do that,” Sohn told CNBC. For example, the biggest holding in EWQ is LVMH Moet Hennessy — Louis Vuitton , which reported that 16% of its revenue came from Asia ex-Japan in 2022 , down from 30% in 2019 , before the pandemic. With China’s reopening gaining steam this year, Paris-traded LVMH has jumped by 29%, making its chairman and CEO Bernard Arnault the world’s richest man . LVMH accounts for about 13% of the EWQ. Other large luxury holdings in the ETF include cosmetics maker L’Oreal and women’s scarves and silk accessory company Hermes International . Those stocks have helped push up the EWQ more than 14% this year to levels rarely seen in its history. The fund is threatening to top its all-time closing high, set back in November 2021, according to FactSet data. That rally barely topped a previous high from 2007. EWQ ALL mountain The iShares MSCI France ETF is trading at close to its all-time high. “You’ve been, in a way, rangebound for 15 years now,” Sohn said. To be sure, the outsized rallies for luxury stocks — and new highs for the fund — could also be a sign that a reversal is near, at least in the short-term. However, Roth MKM chief market technician JC O’Hara said in a note to clients on Sunday that it appears that luxury stocks still have room to run. “We first highlighted the strength of the Luxury Goods market in early December. Since that time, the S & P Global Luxury Goods Index has risen +13%, versus the S & P 500, +1.8%. We continue to favor the technical setup of many of the luxury good charts,” O’Hara wrote. Investors could certainly buy some of the individual luxury names on their own. But from an ETF perspective, the EWQ — with an expense ratio of 0.53% — might be the smartest option for U.S. investors even if it is not a pure play, according to Sohn. What’s more, not all French luxury goods stocks trade in the U.S. “If you want to get exposure, the France country ETF is the best way, because otherwise you’re playing Europe regional ETFs or international quality ETFs, and they’re more watered down. There’s no good thematic way to play those luxury names,” Sohn said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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